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Market Commentary

 

Q2|2021 Market Commentary

 

  • Inflation – transitory or more durable? First, an inflation definition and its effects are appropriate. Inflation is the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over time. The rise in the level of prices means that a unit of currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods. For example, an inflation rate of 2% as we’ve generally seen over the last few decades in the US cuts purchasing power in half in a fairly distant 35 years. However, a 4% inflation rate cuts your savings in half in only 17 years. Hence the reason people invest in risk-assets to try to outpace inflation. Extreme inflation expectations today range from those that believe we will never climb out of the disinflationary vortex to those that believe inflation is about to go on  a huge ascent. Likely, the truth is somewhere in the middle and the current inflation figures have been somewhat distorted to the upside with various supply bottlenecks.
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